Isaac Asimov introduces the Radio Shack TRS-80 pocket computer

I just ran across an article on Isaac Asimov’s predictions for 2014 from 50 years ago. I was thinking of a blog post to start out the year, and this popped out as a good opportunity. As anyone that reads this blog should know, Isaac Asimov is my favorite writer. His birthday is unknown for certain, but he chose to celebrate it on January 2nd. More information here. Anyway, back in 1964 at The World’s Fair, he made a few predictions. Some of the more accurate ones are below describing video phones, Robots, vehicular robots (Google car?), “Wall Screens” (not quite yet but very close), and a eerily accurate population estimate.

“Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone. The screen can be used not only to see the people you call but also for studying documents and photographs and reading passages from books. Synchronous satellites, hovering in space will make it possible for you to direct-dial any spot on earth, including the weather stations in Antarctica.”

“Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence.”

“Vehicles with ‘Robot-brains’ … can be set for particular destinations … that will then proceed there without interference by the slow reflexes of a human driver.”

“Wall screens will have replaced the ordinary set; but transparent cubes will be making their appearance in which three-dimensional viewing will be possible.”

“The world population will be 6,500,000,000 and the population of the United States will be 350,000,000.”

Some of the more comical misses are below:

“Mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014.”

“The most glorious single word in the vocabulary will have become work!”

I also have a prediction for today, the birth of a friend’s baby that is now one week overdue. It would be awesome to share a birthday with Isaac Asimov, right?

For the complete list and link to the original article, click the links below.

Via Open Culture

New York Times

Ever since I first read I, Robot by Isaac Asimov I have been interested in robotics and AI. Back in 1996 or so I had no idea that simulation of a brain might be possible in my lifetime. John Lehrer with Seed Magazine has written a very interesting article, “Out of the Blue“, which covers the Blue Brain project led by Henry Markram. One of the biggest challenges was determining how exactly a neuron is supposed to behave. Without that information, it would be impossible to simulate it. One of the freaky things about this project is that they have a robot conducting experiments and recording data 24/7. This robot is more efficient than 10 experienced lab technicians combined. I would assume that this robot only has enough programming to complete these experiments, but what if robots become sentient? What would keep them from creating other more capable robots? The current project aims to first simulate the brain of a 2 week old rat, which would then be transferred to a robot body to see how it develops.

With the current progression of technology, Markram suggests, “In ten years, this computer will be talking to us.” That seem a bit crazy, but who would have thought 10 years ago that there would technology capable of simulating 10,000 neurons and 30 million synaptic connections? That currently only represents a small slice of a 2 week old rat brain, but given how fast computing power is growing, I can’t see why Markram’s prediction would be impossible. If not 10 years from now, why not 20, or 30? I think that it is just a matter of time. I highly recommend reading the full article, especially if you have any interest in robotics or AI.

Everyone knows (or should!) that Honda has tipped their hat to Isaac Asimov by naming their robot line Asimo. For those that have been living in caves for the past 50 years, he inadvertently invented the word ‘robotics’ in his story Runaround. He assumed it already was a word, but he is attributed for the first use of it in a publication. I remember seeing a YouTube video of these little robots a few years ago which caught my eye. This commercial tries to show the ‘human’ side of robots. I highly doubt that all of the actions in the commercial were autonomous, but I can’t see why it won’t be possible in the near future. Considering I am just a few days away from finishing my huge book project in Asimov’s Robot &amp Foundation Universe I was pleasantly surprised to stumble across this.

A quick look to related videos on YouTube showcased a technical demo of some new abilities in the new Asimo robot version. I’m very impressed to see the progress that has been made. Many of the tasks they show are fairly simple, but I think if they can make the robots use power efficiently they will be useful. It’s amazing that probably within 100 years of Asimov’s robot stories there might be a working model similar to his creations. Of course we are a bit behind robot production, since US Robotics and Mechanical Men had positronic robots in production in the 1990s.

Of course there are several videos of failed demonstrations with the Asimo prototypes taking spills while trying to do something as simple as walking up and down stairs. I’m confident that Honda will work out the bugs with the programming and balancing servos sooner or later. I know I will be keeping an eye on development in robotics.

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Wow, looks like I’ve had quite a few hits from StumbleUpon. Hopefully I can get some interesting feedback with this nice spike in visitors.

So, do any of you think that Robots can or will ever become self aware? If so, how soon do you think it could happen given the rapid development of technology? Would humans revolt and ban such machines? Asimov covers that last question in his science fiction, which is one of my favorite themes. Are there any authors you might recommend that focus on human/robot relations?
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